The outlook really is bright – it’s confirmed!
Whilst we hear and read a lot in the media about economic recovery, business growth and a positive outlook, it’s always nice to have it quantified with real data. So, we were pleased to read the Chamber of Commerce Monthly Economic Review, which has revealed some encouraging data for the UK outlook.
It seems that business investment is helping to drive growth, putting less emphasis and dependency on consumer spending, in comparison with previous quarters – which is great news for a sustainable recovery and supports the view that the recovery is really gathering momentum.
The review revealed that UK growth is likely to quicken this year and as such, the Bank of England has upgraded its outlook for the UK economy, increasing the UK GDP forecast for 2014 to 3.4%, from the previous estimate of 2.8%. It has also revised the forecast for 2015 to 2.7%, from 2.3%, and the European Commission also lifted its forecast for UK growth in 2014 to 2.5%, from 2.2%. This indicates a positive view all round.
What was also illustrated is that exports are playing a positive role in boosting growth, increasing by 0.4% whilst imports fell by 0.9% – causing net trade to contribute 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4. This is in contrast to the last quarter when net trade was a drag on growth, wiping 1.1 percentage points off GDP growth in the quarter.
So it would seem as well as a sunny outlook in meteorological terms, we can feel a warm glow about the economy too!